Senate Races 2024 Predictions 538. An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. If every state votes identically to how it did in the 2020 presidential election — and every senate race follows the presidential vote — then democrats would come out.
When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing democrat kamala harris’s and republican donald trump’s chances of winning.